Category Archives: Society

ADD?

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Attention to Deficit Disorder.

The 800 pound gorilla put on a wee bit of weight last week when Congress added the G.R.A.F.T. Act to the TARP payments.

Now that President Obama has hit his bailout and stimulus balls right over the fence, he needs something else to do. See, the economy is fixed. People are back at work, the Iraq war is over, American highway bridges have all been replaced, and New Orleans is completely rebuilt.

The President announced his new goal of the week yesterday. He will cut the deficit at least in half by the end of his term.

We owe an eye-popping $10.8 trillion in gross national debt; that amount will sooner or later come due on our personal and corporate income taxes, half of which already pay solely for the military and the interest on the debt. According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the national debt has just about doubled since 2000. The AP reported that the $700 billion bailout alone will send the national debt over $11 trillion. The U.S. Government has never been debt free; we have owed money every year since 1791. In fact, only in the boom years of 1835-1836 has the debt been only $35,000 or so. Every other year but 1837 we have paid interest on millions, billions, or trillions of dollars of debt. I am not Carl Sagan, R.I.P.

NBC News reported yesterday that President Obama acknowledged there is a deficit and that it is as large as it has ever been. Mr. Obama’s budget outline, which he will release on Thursday, will include deficit reduction as a centerpiece in his plans to deliver national health care and national energy changes.

The mechanism to cut the deficit? No more spending in Iraq and higher taxes.

Oh, and by the way? We’re not cutting the actual deficit. We’re cutting the rate at which the deficit increases. You might say we’re sort of reducing how much we borrow. I guess the 800 pound gorilla is still in the corner after all.

My friend “Bob” suggested that we call this piece “DAD” for Deficit Attention Disorder. I would except that sounds so paternalistic. The Obama Administration would never be paternalistic, would it?

Change. It’s what we do™.

Andy Rooney talked about The Times US presidential rankings on 60 Minutes last night. “Democracy is a great idea,” he said, “but I have always thought we have a great president hidden somewhere in the United States and we’ve just never found him. Or her.”

Hessian Horsemen and Other Stories

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Oops.

Honey, I’m afraid the knife slipped.

I think this column might be in bad taste. You have been warned.

Sam Calhoun lives in a rambling farmhouse in Vermont’s Northeast Kingdom with Sarah, his wife of 17 years, their six school-aged kids, and a floppy eared cocker spaniel named Jehoshaphat.The Kingdom is the remote northeast corner of the state, an area comprising Essex, Orleans and Caledonia Counties. It is bordered by the Connecticut River in the East and Jay Peak in the West. North of it is the wilderness of deepest, darkest, Canada. South is the state capitol, Montpelier. 80% of the Kingdom is covered by forest; right now 100% of the Kingdom is covered by snow. It is listed in “1,000 Places to See Before You Die.”

Nice place to visit. Pretty rugged place to live.

Mr. Calhoun is a lumberjack by trade in a time when more wood products come from Canada and China than from Vermont. He struggles dawn to dusk to eke out his living from the hardscrabble landscape.

Jehoshaphat is Sarah Calhoun’s dog but she never grooms him. Like so many cocker spaniels, his hair mats into impenetrable masses, swelling his ears to elephant size and changing his lithe and sinuous body shape to mutton.

Sam Calhoun has told Sarah to clean up the dog every morning and every night for at least a year.

She hasn’t done so and the dog is weighed down by the burden.

Finally Sam and Jehoshaphat led the disobedient Sarah to the wood shed. Mr. Calhoun laid his wife across his best splitting block and beheaded her on the spot.

Mr. Calhoun has a wide-ranging choice of tools. He could have used his Stihl chainsaw with the 30″ bar. He could have used his antique topping axe. He didn’t. He did it the old fashioned way — with a maul.

Then he washed and brushed and combed and dried the darned dog.

Mr. Calhoun told the neighbors that his wife had packed her bags and moved to California. “The land of the fruits and nuts,” he said.

The authorities might have believed Sam’s story had not Jehoshaphat waddled the four miles to the free public library. The librarian noticed there were still flecks of dried blood soaked into the freshly washed fur and called authorities.

“She just would not listen to reason,” Mr. Calhoun told the arresting officers.

The Northeast Kingdom State’s Attorney called it, “The worst form of domestic violence possible”

The story you have read is fiction. I have invented every part of it except the Northeast Kingdom which is indeed, as the National Geographic Society names it, the “most desirable place to visit” in the United States. Mr. and Mrs. Calhoun exist only in my pepperoni-fueled dreams.Imagine the flack I would have taken if I had linked my story to all the Islamic jihad imagery of swarthy, hooded men with scimitars standing over humbled Westerners. Imagine the flack I would have taken if I had give the doer an ethnic name like Muzzammil Hassan and identified him as the Buffalo, NY, man who founded Bridges TV five years ago to combat the perception of Muslims as cruel promoters of terror abroad and in their own homes. I could even have written that Mr. Hassan has been arrested for beheading Aasiya Hassan, his lovely, 37 year old, disobedient wife.

Oh.

Wait.

That story would be true.

Guest Post: Geno says It Is Deliberate

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Some back story:

On February 4, 2009, Congressional Budget Office Director Douglas W. Elmendorf wrote to Senator Judd Gregg that the CBO has conducted an analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the stimulus. CBO estimates that this Senate legislation would, in the long run, cause a “decrease in gross domestic product (GDP) compared with CBO’s baseline economic forecast.”

One of my correspondents replied, “It is difficult not to conclude that Congress is the arsonist who starts the fires and then rushes in as the firefighter to ‘save us,’ only to set yet another fire.”

He also reminded me of Congress recent culpability, to wit:

Congress has heard, over and over and over again, about the Social Security deficit coming in our lifetime and they have with all deliberation ignored it.

Congress has heard, over and over and over again, about the Medicare shortfall coming in our lifetime and they have with all deliberation ignored it.

Congress has heard, over and over and over again, about Mortgage Crisis I problem and they frittered away 350 billion dollars on it.

Congress has heard, over and over and over again, about Mortgage Crisis II (the “good” Option A and ARM notes coming due) problem and they have with all deliberation ignored it.

Congress has heard, over and over and over again, that throwing trillions of dollars to their friends while looting the last of the great and little manufacturers (the car companies and America’s small businesses) is a bad idea. They have with all deliberation ignored that, too.

With that as the discussion that goes before, regular correspondent Geno sent this along:

“We is doomed,” wrote Bob and Dick.

That, we may well be.

Congress (largely both sides of the aisle at this time) is a self-serving entity. Members of Congress see this as a money tree and a way to get reelected. The unuttered charge is, “don’t try to derail my gravy train with facts.”

They simply don’t want to hear it; so no amount of public opinion will slow the train’s engineers.

On the Right, a few conservatives are holding out, but only marginally. And, of course, moderates (read that republicans who are too wimpy to admit their liberalism) do not care because they have no core values upon which to stand. They are Right when Right fits their need and Left when Left best fits. Keywords here are “their need.” I hate that in both a leader and a follower.

The economy was bad during the Carter years, and interest rates were high double digits. Now it’s bad and interest rates are next to zero. So, where’s the connection? Maybe there is none. Maybe it is a mirage. Maybe even the way a nation measures its wealth is an aberation.

Of course, wealth is a virtue and a national treasure. But when wealth is measured by a string of numbers on paper–or worse by how much of it one can hold in ones hand, then it is a tenuous virtue indeed. Does anyone really believe that there are enough greenbacks in circulation to pay every American the amount he claims he owns? Or for that matter, enough gold in Fort Worth? (forgive the Texas joke).

Perhaps money has no color–green or otherwise–and exists solely in the elbow grease and common production of its citizenry.

We have strayed so far from that tenet that even I scoff when I write it.

Money is the root of all evil, some theologians will say. But, contrary to common wisdom, the Bible does not teach that. It clearly says that “the love of money” is the root of all evil.

And there are people committing that sin who don’t have a dime.

Entitled?

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“There are only two English words that begin with ‘su‘ that have the ‘sh‘ sound,” a fellow commuter on the West Chester local told my grandfather a few decades ago. “Sumac and sugar.”

My grandfather, known as Grandpa to my cousins and Boppa to me, was amused. See, Boppa was a scientist as well as a Presbyterian elder. He knew his fellow commuter believed that vocabularic limit. He also knew the difference between fact and faith.

In what seems like a non sequitur, we might recall that the Miami-Dade school district plans to sue the state of Florida to recoup approximately $25 million in “lost revenue” because the state changed its funding formula to reflect the drop in income.

Meanwhile the structural issue in the Vermont budget is a $200 million shortfall this year and next. That seems small in the overall economy but it looms large in this state of 600,000 peeps. Governor Jim Douglas, R-Vermont, says the state will have to cut programs including $34 million from Human Services and charge higher premiums for people on state health care.

“Our message to the governor is this: Stop,” said Carlen Finn who spoke first for all the advocates for seniors, kids, the differently abled, and others who lashed out at the gov.

BROKEN NEWS


Fiscal desparation is why Gov. Douglas was in Washington today. He lobbied fellow Republicans to pass the stimulus bill and was the first governor invited to the White House by President Obama.

Vermont entitlement groups have offered a different solution to the problem of diminishing handouts: no lawsuits, just new taxes. They expect the state to raise the cigarette tax by a buck a pack and double the income taxes on the 2 percent of Vermonters who earn over half a million dollars annually. Oddly not one group thinks docking the salaries of non-profit executives by 5% is a good idea.

The entitlement group proposals would generate about $20 million. The rest, they say, should come from the federal stimulus package.

Wow. Maybe I can get that new laptop I need and the camera I really really need.

“There’s no question we should give as much money to the states as we can,” Congressman Charles Rangel, D-NY, said “But with so many of our infrastructure problems … we’re going to have to … remove the [governors’] discretion.”

One of my correspondents notes that, “on an economic scale of 1 to 50 Vermont prolly rates below Mississippi.” He doesn’t worry about the Vermont legislature mucking up an economic recovery. “I mean,” he says, “how much damage can they do?”

Hey. A billion here, a billion there, pretty soon we’re talking real money.

I hate to agree, even briefly, with anyone in the Barney Rubble gang in Congress but if Vermont is any indication, state legislatures can do a lot of damage.

Unfortunately, if the bank bailout is any indication, Congress can sink us all.

For the record, business is slow for us consultants this year and Anne’s hours have been cut as well. Our income is down a few grand compared to last year so WE HAVE TO SPEND LESS MONEY. That few grand seems small in the overall economy but it looms large in this family of two. See, faith in Congress notwithstanding, the simple fact is that I can’t buy the laptop or the camera if I don’t have enough cash for the cable bill.

“Somebody needs to explain to [Governor Douglas] that the word tax is not a four letter word,” said Christopher Curtis of Legal Aid.

“Are you sure?” Boppa asked the commuter all those years ago.

“We must have strong minds,
ready to accept facts as they are.”
–Harry S Truman
President Truman was a Democrat.

Change

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Haven’t we been here before? I’ll bet you thought I was going to write about the new administration didn’t you. After all, never in the history of politics (where the more things “change” the more they stay the same) has “change” been more heralded.

Nope.

Today we are going to talk about Pepsi™.

Three of my two favorite beverages, Diet Pepsi™, Caffeine Free Diet Pepsi™, and Tropicana™ Pure Premium Orange Juice, have significantly changed their appearance on the grocery store shelf.

I didn’t like it.

I thought I didn’t like it only because it was difficult for both Anne and me to find the bottle on the shelf. Forest : trees, innit. That’s the old-fogey response except I have to think that, if it is more difficult for me to find the product, it is more difficult for every other buyer to find the product on the shelf.

That seems counter productive.

The Hawthorne effect describes how you change your behavior in response to a change in your environment. The name comes from a series of experiments with telephone relay assemblers at the Hawthorne Works, a manufacturer near Chicago, that began in the 1920s.

The Hawthorne experiments had many facets, most of which counted the number of relays each worker finished and dropped in a chute. Over the years the researchers changed pretty much everything that could impact the workers from payroll frequency to break time to the lighting in the test room.

I particularly remember the lighting.

See, the researchers changed the assembly room lighting and productivity went up. After a while, they changed the lighting back and productivity went up. Again.

That experiment told us for the first time that making a change–any change–can alter peoples’ behavior.

Tropicana™ dropped the long-famous orange-with-a-straw logo in favor of a stemware glass and a squared-off, formal typeface. The carton looks more … generic now.

I doubt that was the intent.

Pepsi-Cola™ has unveiled a new face several times in the past couple of decades, starting with a logo change that the company thought was “younger looking” than Coke’s antiquated script. The company has since changed the swoops and the design on the bottles a few times leading up to the most recent major color change. Diet Pepsi™, which I drink before five in the afternoon, was once in a primarily blue bottle. It is now in a silver bottle that looks brownish in soft light. Caffeine Free Diet Pepsi™, which I drink after five that I might sleep at night, was once in a mostly tan bottle. It is now in a white bottle that looks vaguely blueish in soft light.

Those new bottles look so different, they force a rote buyer to search all the product in the soda aisle to find them. That means the rote buyer no longer makes his or her choice automatically but considers all the other products Pepsi™ sells. I looked for the first time in quite a while at the Max™, the Wild Cherries™, the Jazz™, and even the Caramel™. Caramel?

Huh.

I guess the change worked. The new bottle design means I really did look at every one of the Pepsi™ bottles on the shelf. Unfortunately, I had also looked at every one of the Canada Dry™ products, the Schweppes™ products, and even the Coke™ products thinking perhaps someone had pulled an unconscionable switch.

Overall, perhaps the change is good. I did relearn about all the different flavors (Caramel?) and it did not drive me to sample the offerings from the competitors. It might just attract the eye of new buyers who very well might try the taste. That is the game: keep your current customers happy with the taste and find new markets with the advertising. And the packaging.

After all that bottle lugging I’m suddenly thirsty.

It is worth noting in the small print that, although both Tropicana™ and all the Pepsi™ beverages mentioned are Pepsico units and that I do own Pepsico stock, there was no product placement payment for this column.