June 7, 2010 by Dick.

“I missed fucking Asbestos Dust?” Rufus said. He was amazed. The rest of us about died.

For those just whooshed, Asbestos Dust is the nom-de-Net of a writer from Texas or Arkansas or maybe Alaska. I met him at a party in Pennsylvania to which Rufus was invited but did not attend.

Word choice makes a difference. Even word position makes a difference. “I fucking missed Asbestos Dust?” has a very different meaning than what Rufus actually said.

“Substitute ‘damn’ every time you’re inclined to write ‘very’; your editor will delete it and the writing will be just as it should be,” Mark Twain wrote. Regular readers will realize that I use little profanity in real life and even less in my writings. I will not use any of the other seven dirty words here today; younger readers need not tune to a different channel.

On the other hand, I will take issue with how the anti-science crowd uses its words.

NPR’s Science Friday focused on new nuclear technologies in the episode broadcast March 5, 2010 . Guests included Earth Policy Institute founder Lester Brown, Scott Burnell, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission public affairs officer, John Deal, CEO of Hyperion Power Generation, and Professor Richard Lester who heads the Nuclear Science and Engineering Department at MIT.

“What is the future of nuclear power,” Mr. Brown asked himself. “It’s cost cost cost.”

Waste could kill nuclear power, he said. “Imagine if the billion dollar price tag [the per plant cost of the Yucca Mountain project] had been on the table when they were being considered, most of them would never have gotten off the ground.”

A billion dollar “extra” cost per plant sounds excessive, doesn’t it? It is exceptionally expensive if all you know is that one partial factoid.

“The volume of waste produced is very, very small,” Professor Lester said. A nuclear plant produces a couple of ounces of waste per person per year; a coal plant produces about 10 tons of waste per person per year. “We can afford to spend a lot of money on safely storing this material. The impact on the cost of nuclear electricity is actually very small.”

“Our cost … is just under 10 cents per KW-hour,” Mr. Deal said later. That includes the waste.

“What we have in this country, and that’s not going to help with the image of nuclear power, is the discovery that there are now 27 older plants with underground pipes that are leaking tritium, and tritium is a carcinogen,” Mr. Brown said. “In Vermont, as I recall, with the most recent instance occurring at Vermont Yankee.”

Tritium leaks sound pretty dangerous, don’t they? They are excruciatingly dangerous if all you know is one partial factoid.

The hydrogen isotope tritium is a by-product of modern nuclear reactor operations. It combines easily with oxygen to form “tritiated water” which can be ingested by drinking or eating organic foods. It is a radiation hazard when inhaled, ingested via food, water, or absorbed through the skin but, since tritium is not much of a beta emitter, it is not dangerous when simply nearby. It has a 7 to 14 day half life in the human body. That means a single-incident ingestion is not usually dangerous and it precludes accumulating tritium from the environment in your body long-term.

“There have been 27 instances … [but] they are not all ongoing,” Mr. Burnell said. “In the case of Vermont Yankee … the contamination is not reaching any drinking water sources; it’s not reaching the nearby Connecticut River. So it is not presenting any public health issue and we, at the NRC, are closely watching how Vermont Yankee is evaluating the situation to discover where the leak is coming from. We will make sure that they do identify it properly, that they fix it properly, and that in every instance they are doing what is necessary to operate the plant safely and in accordance with our regulations.”

“I’m not a geologist or an engineer,” Mr. Brown said as he evaluated the complex dance of creating and running a nuclear power plant. Ya think?

Word choice — what we actually say — makes a difference in what listeners understand. Mr. Brown certainly knows that. This is a real example of choosing words to propagandize rather than choosing to disclose the facts.

So, did we fucking miss A.D. or did we miss fucking him?

“It’s been too long since I had a taste of the Dust,” Rufus said.

There is no hope.

Posted in Newspaper "Science", Writing, Science (not-so-real), Science (real), Politics & News, Random Access | 2 Comments »

March 22, 2010 by Dick.

My old friend “Swampy” has been visiting for a couple of weeks. Don Swamtek loves Spring skiing and, despite the above average temperatures here the past 45 days (we annihilated the record high, bumping it by 6̊  to 66̊ on Friday), there is 3 inches of new snow in the mountains. Jay Peak has a 26 - 40 inch base and Stowe has 32 - 56 inches.

“I really like this Global Weirding stuff,” he said after a run at Jay last week. He was wearing lederhosen at the time, although he also had on heavy wool socks.

In real life, Swampy is a nuclear engineer with one of the few remaining Fortune 500 manufacturers. He spends his days dreaming about building a new plant in his own country and his nights star gazing. I don’t know why so many of my friends are hooked on the night sky, but they all surely do like it dark.

“We haven’t built a new nuclear plant in the U.S. in more than 30 years,” Swampy said, “but nuclear power still creates almost a fifth of the electricity we use.” Output was 809 billion kWh in 2008. “It may provide only 20 percent of our nation’s electricity but that is 70 percent — more than two-thirds — of our carbon-free, pollution-free electricity.”

GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy and Polish power company Polska Grupa Energetyczna will collaborate to build Poland’s two new next-generation commercial nuclear power plants. Poland currently relies heavily on coal-fired production. That country needs the nukes to help diversify its energy production, especially since plants like the ones they plan would avoid annual emissions equivalent to approximately 1.3 million cars. Poland is surrounded by at least 26 nuclear reactors operating in its neighboring lands.

Meanwhile, South Korea has won contracts to design and build a nuclear research reactor in Jordan as well as at least four nuclear power plants in the United Arab Emirates. The South Korean team beat off France and an American-Japanese power consortium in the bidding competition.

Swampy surprises a lot of people because he is an environmentalist. He cools his house with natural convection and fans instead of air conditioning. He heats it with wood. He hangs some of his clothes to dry and uses an Energy*Star appliance for the rest. He has a solar water heater. He and I designed an electric car in the 70s. More important, he haunts garage sales (on his bike) rather than buying new. He repairs and reuses everything, although he refuses to wash out and reuse freezer bags (yes, I do that).

On the other hand, he is improbably cheerful about his environmental message. “I’m not doom-and-gloom enough to get people to make me their Messiah.” That doesn’t stop him from reminding us of the truth.

“Doesn’t matter if you believe people cause global warming or even if there is global warming,” he said. “That argument is sort of irrelevant.

“Oil was $150 per barrel just last year and there’s no reason to think this administration — or the Far Green — will do anything but try to jack the price even more. Even if affordability doesn’t bother you, we’re not making any more dinosaurs. Making electricity we can afford to use right now. That has to be the focus for alternate energy policy. Everything else you say is a distraction.

“If we don’t fix this, we’re gonna turn out our lights. For good.”

So, I have to wonder. With all that brainpower, with all that education, with all that belief in conservation, why can’t I get him to turn out the lights when he leaves a room?

Posted in Global Warming, Society, Science (real), Politics & News, Random Access | 4 Comments »

February 15, 2010 by Dick.

I have a phrenology bust.

German physician and research scientist Franz Joseph Gall theorized that the brain is the source of all mental activity. He was the first to measure shape of the skull scientifically to determine how its bumps indicate character.

Enos Barnard, a learned man, inventor, dairy farmer, and my great-grandfather, was widely read and very forward thinking. He insisted that my great-grandmother attend Swarthmore College before they married. He developed a cooling system for cream separation. And he believed as Gall showed that, through careful observation and extensive experimentation, the high spots at specific areas on the skull tied to the locations of faculties in the brain. The popular phrenology busts were topographical maps of the skull used to measure character scientifically.

It is an interesting curiosity; I collect curiosities.

Rooted originally in Ancient Egypt, alchemy is the system of transmuting metals. Alchemists invented distillation, made glass, mortar, paint, and cosmetics, and then decided they could turn base metals into gold. This science — well supported by empirical evidence of materials changed by the alchemists — was universally accepted into the Middle Ages. Believers had faith in alchemy.

Geocentricity was all the rage in the scientific establishment until Pope Urban VIII (the last pope to expand the papal territory by force of arms) jailed Galileo in the 17th Century for debunking the scientific theory that the earth is the center of the Universe and that all other objects move around it. The view — well supported by empirical evidence that the sun, stars, and planets appear to revolve around Earth — was universally accepted in ancient Greece and in ancient China. (Belief in a flat earth was gone by the third century BC, despite claims by the modern Flat Earth Society). Believers had faith in geocentricity.

30 years after Galileo died, German physicist Johann Joachim Becher theorized the existence of Phlogiston. The view — well supported by empirical evidence — showed that a fire died out when the phlogiston saturated the air. This is the earliest known example of anthropogenic effects on the atmosphere. Believers had faith in the existence of the classical elements.

The Bible (and other historical records) show that God made man from dust. Science embraced Spontaneous Generation as well supported by empirical evidence of the elemental nature of the universe. Anaximander wrote that the first humans had been born spontaneously from the soil as adults. Aristotle wrote that some animals grow spontaneously rather than from other animals. Jan Baptist van Helmont wrote a recipe for making a mouse from wheat and soiled cloth. Believers had faith in equivocal generation. Louis Pasteur’s discovery of biogenesis debunked spontaneous generation in 1859.

University of Vermont professor of zoology Henry F. Perkins began teaching eugenics in his heredity course in 1921. His “Vermont Eugenics Survey” of 1925 His view — well supported by his empirical evidence of heredity in human affairs — led directly to the Vermont sterilization law of 1931. The 253 sterilizations performed on poor, rural Vermonters as well as Abenaki Indians, French-Canadians and others deemed unfit to have children in Vermont ranked this small state 25th in the nation. Believers had faith in eugenics. Earlier this month, the Vermont Assembly took testimony on a non-binding resolution to express regret about the eugenics movement.

The science of Astrology has shown through extensive experimentation that the positions of celestial bodies influences, divines, or predicts personality, human activities, and other terrestrial matters. That view — well supported by empirical evidence linking human action to star location — has spawned traditions and applications from the third millennium BC to the present. Believers have faith in astrology. Although the scientific community has demonstrated that astrological predictions have no statistical significance, millions of Americans trust it.

Early climatologists theorized that human settlement caused a permanent increase in rainfall (”Rain follows the Plow”). In the 19th century Americans settled the Great American Desert (now called the High Plains), the Southwestern Desert (now called Arizona), and parts of South Australia (now called South Australia). Modern climatologists theorized that human settlement caused a permanent increase in global temperature they called Global Warming. Believers have faith in man-made Global Warming. Although the scientific community has demonstrated that the predictions of human change driving atmospheric change made by this political science are flawed, millions of Americans still trust it.

Once upon a time all the evidence showed each was a universal truth. Believers had faith. That’s a problem when laymen come to science to find universal truth. Science gives us a way to compare what we think (our hypotheses) to what we know (the results of our experiments). A real scientist develops a theory from what he thinks and what he sees. That theory will change as new data comes to light. True scientists understand this need for change but it is hard for laymen to give up their hopes.

My great-grandfather may have given up the busted religion of phrenology but he kept the bust.

Biologist Ludwik Fleck warned us that witnesses see what they expect to see, notwithstanding facts that contradict them nor what impartial observers measure. As Thomas Cardinal Wolsey wrote, “Be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”

Now that’s still true.

Posted in Global Warming, Sociology, Science (real), Big Thoughts, Random Access | 2 Comments »

June 22, 2009 by Dick.

I am, while you read this, driving up the East Coast burning 90% dead dinosaurs and throwing away the other 10% of my fuel dollars on a government scam.

Ethanol is the automotive equivalent of email spam for erection extenders.

You’ve seen the ads.

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of erection pills, at huge savings over the brand equivalents.

Ci ialis (only $3 per pill)
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Join our current 5 millions happy users today.

I’ve become increasingly frustrated and it has nothing to do with Mr. ED. We in this part of the blogosphere are doing good things: we’re asking the right questions and we’re honing the good answers.

We’ve known since 2006 that the taxpayer-funded subsidy for ethanol came to $1.45 per gallon. We’ve known for even longer that ethanol cuts mileage at a time the same government that underwrites this non-fuel mandates higher economy and greater ethanol usage. We’ve also known that ethanol laced fuels corrode automotive, marine, and lawnmower fuel systems. And we have certainly announced it.

No one hears us. The Beltway Bandits of the world don’t (won’t? can’t?) listen and 306,711,705 people here in these United States have never even heard of No Puffin (in a wild flight of fancy, I assumed that one thousand peeps have). “ED Med” claims 5,000 times that many satisfied users.

And you, gentle reader, have. You may even agree some of the time.

Unfortunately, that audience of one is insufficient to effect change.

People seem to buy from spam. Otherwise, spammers wouldn’t do what they do.

Are you thinking what I’m thinking?

Posted in Marketing, Society, Science (real), Random Access | 4 Comments »

April 27, 2009 by Dick.

Some people say all men are pigs but I disavow all knowledge of swine flu.

My friend Towse wrote about the hype hype HYPE surrounding the swine flu.

“There is always some flu around and flu is always killing some people,” Towse wrote. “Even when a raw mutant flu manages to kill off more people than a shooting-war, flu has never ravaged whole cities as cholera or the Black Death can do. As awful pandemics go, flu is like the snotty-nosed little sister of awful pandemics.”

As of April 26, there were just 20 confirmed cases of Swine flu in the United States.
California, 7 cases. Kansas, 2 cases. New York City, 8 cases. Ohio, 1 case. Texas, 2 cases.

That said, the swine flu hype is probably justified.

Everyone in the medical community fears a rerun of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. To put it in the computer terms we all understand, “It’s not a question of whether your hard drive crashes but when.”

I came to know more about the 1918-19 pandemic through Vermont Poet Laureate Ellen Bryant Voigt’s narrative poem, Kyrie, This sequence of persona poems connects different speakers by their location in the pandemic. That epidemic killed more than 30 million people worldwide. Some of Ms. Voigt’s narrators “seem related to one another and form a kind of community. It was an amazing devastation,” she said, “encouraged by World War I. The movement of troops made it easy for the virus to spread.” The name Kyrie (pronounced KEER-ee-aa) is from the Greek meaning “Lord.”

The 1918 pandemic was better known as the Spanish flu. That bug killed more than twice the number killed in World War I.

CDC reports that the current “viruses contain a unique combination of gene segments that have not been reported previously among swine or human influenza viruses in the U.S. or elsewhere… It is not anticipated that the seasonal influenza vaccine will provide protection against the swine flu H1N1 viruses.”

The H1N1 viruses are also unique in that, having jumped from swine and birds to humans, they now make the jump from human to human. Modern air travel means they can travel to all corners of the world in days.

Today, the World Bank announced that there is not enough money on hand to underwrite treating a “simple” flu pandemic across the third world.

I had not planned to address the swine flu. After all, it’s not as if there isn’t already enough coverage. This is not a “little boy who cried wolf” issue. It is really a newspaper science versus real science issue. Even if this particular influenza outbreak peters out instead of pigging out on all our peeps, it’s not a question of whether there will be a pandemic but when.

Men cope better with emergencies if they practice practice practice their response. I hope they practice well on this one.

CDC reminded us of the everyday actions people can take to stay healthy:

• Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
• Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
• Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

And, perhaps most important, avoid close contact with sick people.

Posted in Newspaper "Science", Society, Science (real), Random Access | 5 Comments »