Kerfuffle

We Only Have 500 Days Left to Avoid Climate Chaos!

Cool!

I started a kerfuffle without really trying when I posted a random quip on Facebook.

If you distrust what the Administration told you about the military, why do you trust what they say about global warming?

There’s nothing particularly profound about tossing out a query that rotated into my email signature file. On the other hand, it does ask a profound question.

You can read the more than 100 comments here but I’ll summarize the discussion:

“Because they said so!”
“Oh no they didn’t and besides, they’re wrong!”
“Oh, you don’t know what you’re talking about!”

That’s the usual take on social media these days when a person who studied materials science, a cartoonist, an international banker, a retired chemist, and a couple of writers set themselves up as the experts on climate science. Or any other hot button issue.

It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble.
It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.
–Mark Twain

The solar deniers in this argument are quick to blame “the Internet” or “Faux News” or the “Koch Brothers” for any data that contradicts them. The irony that their proofs come from “the Internet” or “MSNBC” or “Tom Steyer” or the totally political IPCC aggregation committee apparently eludes them.

Once upon a time, I thought that nothing rivaled the misinformation spewed by global warming true believers and spinmeisters. Then I reported on the anti-GMO campaign. The way the Far Green consortium has distorted science makes Dr. Murari Lal look pure.

“We thought that if we can highlight [the fake ice melt data], it will impact policy-makers and politicians and encourage them to take some concrete action,” Dr. Lal told the Daily Mail.

In both cases, the purpose is to convince you, Dear Reader, to take up arms in the cause.

In both cases, the purpose is to keep the Green flowing. The green research dollars. The green investment dollars. The green tax dollars.

Science is not a Harris poll. It doesn’t matter a whit whether you believe in cold fusion or phrenology or that the Earth is only 6,000 years old. It doesn’t matter if 71% or 51% or 0% of all mankind believe in global warming. 100% of scientists believed Aristotle who told them a heavy body falls to earth faster than a light one. One man didn’t. The Church later found him “vehemently suspect of heresy” for saying the sun didn’t rotate around the earth. He spent the last years of his life under house arrest.

The trouble with our liberal friends
is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just
that they know so much that isn’t so.
And they would force us to go along.
–Dick Harper paraphrasing Ronald Reagan paraphrasing Mark Twain

Want to to know why I distrust our liberal friends?

Because they deride faith but put their faith in all the fads their polls tell them to believe. Because they adhere to vaccination denials but don’t accept the things Galileo (and others) showed them data to support.

And because everyone jumped to defend their faith in the “settled science” in this thread but not one of them answered the original question.

 

A Message of Faith

Yesterday was Easter Sunday. Tomorrow is Earth Day. In between, we can find a message of faith.

“God has the last word,” Timothy Cardinal Dolan, Archbishop of New York, reminded television viewers yesterday.

One of those last words has long been, Don’t poop where you perch.

I saw Hurricane Hazel annihilate a larch tree in my front yard. I saw the 1998 ice storm decimate the forests around North Puffin. I watched Hurricane Wilma drown my South Puffin neighbors and Irene flood and sink and forever change the southern half of Vermont.

That was a more than a little bit of rain.

I’ve watched pilots shoot flares of silver iodide and dry ice, and liquid propane, and even table salt into a cloud in a vain hope of making it give up just a little bit of rain.

Rainmaking attempts go way back. A typical Tübatulabal shaman’s rain making bundle contains the all important quartz crystals plus charm stones, biface fragments of obsidian, a fossil fish vertebra, pebbles, some stibnite, milky quartz, and steatite, a small tobacco bag, a piece of rawhide, some plant material tied with a bit of denim, some soil and a denim sack. Oddly, the great southwestern American desert is still a desert in spite of those best efforts to make rain.

I’d say nature has the other last word over man.

Lily -- the Flower of Easter(from the Moon) Earth -- the Flower of ScienceToday, rain isn’t (quite) the issue. Temperature is. Over the millennia, the climate has and does change as solar activity varies, the magnetic poles shift, the moon wobbles, and Earth’s axis tilts a few degrees one way or the other. Right now, the planet is cooling (slightly) from what the alarmists said was the all time high but it had been rising precipitously. Despite the alarmists, it hasn’t gotten as warm as during Roman and Medieval times, but it is warmer than 100 years ago.

There are two schools of thought about what drives global warming. On the one side are a small but growing number of scientists who have found wider swings in the fossil record before homo sapiens walked upright. They’re looking at drivers like the sun now. On the other side are a large number of scientists who believe man and only man has driven every variation in planetary temperatures. They’ve stopped looking for the drivers.

The U.N.-operated sanctioning body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, says it is too late. They arrived at this conclusion not by making startling new discoveries but by tweaking the data they already have.

But wait! We can fix it if we just give up meat and cars and our iPhones!

Those who pray at the altar of Al Gore have faith that man has the last word over nature.

Humans
Unaware of
Basic
Real
Icky
Science

The solar deniers who pray at the altar of Al Gore tell us that “the science is fixed” but all we have to do is return to the Stone Age and the planet may get back to normal. After all, those biface fragments of obsidian (“stone knives” to the rest of us) brought a lot of rain to the desert, they did.

I have great faith in two certainties: good science and man’s hubris.

Tomorrow is Earth Day. I have great hope that good science will triumph over great hubris in the long run. Day-to-day? I’m not so sure.

 

Rehash

Year end usually means a wrap-up but I really dislike retreading the same roads and rehashing old news. Still, I can maybe get one person to think outside the box.

The trouble with our liberal friends
is not that they’re ignorant; it’s just
that they know so much that isn’t so.
–Ronald Reagan

University of Vermont professor Henry Perkins’ eugenics courses and his “Vermont Eugenics Survey” — well supported by his own empirical evidence — led directly to the Vermont sterilization law of 1931. Vermont’s 253 sterilizations on poor, rural folks as well as Abenaki Indians, French-Canadians and others put that state only half way up the scale of eugenics providers nationwide. Millions of true believers had blind faith in eugenics.

An investigation by the Wall Street Journal earlier this month reported that “lobotomy’s most dogged salesman,” the late Dr. Walter Freeman, performed some 3,500 frontal lobotomies during the 1940s and 1950s including Rosemary Kennedy’s at the age of 23. He was so confident that he once demonstrated his procedure by hammering an icepick into each eye socket of a patient and “toggling” the picks around certain that he was severing the brain tissue “correctly.” Millions of true believers had blind faith in the science of lobotomies.

Astrology has shown through extensive experimentation that the positions of celestial bodies influences, divines, or predicts personality, human activities, and other terrestrial matters. Millions of true believers still have blind faith in the science of Astrology.

Three stories from Facebook this week illustrate my point about blind faith.

“OMG,” my friend Ashley Proctor wrote. “We all must come to the realization that eating anything out of the Pacific Ocean (let alone swimming in it) is a thing in the past.”

She was responding to the headline, All Bluefin Tuna Caught In California Are Radioactive.

“It’s never going away,” she wrote. “Not in our lifetime. Not ever. WE SCREWED UP THE PACIFIC OCEAN, people. We screwed up the OCEAN.”

~~~

I basked (briefly to be sure) when one of my teaching moments appeared to bear fruit: Dr. Jon Friar, my earnest, apparently data driven liberal friend wrote in a Global Warming thread, “This blind race toward ignorance is especially galling when it’s run by people like Dick, who really should know better.” Unfortunately, that and the hope “that reason and facts will convince and even convert, when in fact they don’t do either” have been my own arguments about Dr. Friar and his friends for some years now.

“A more likely truth is that they’re simply feeding your words back to you as a (pretty decent) troll,” Liz Arden said.

~~~

“Climate scientists got their funding from the NSF and NASA,” Dr. Friar said. “You can’t get better data than that.”

~~~

“Congratulations, Dick!” my friend Lee Bruhl wrote in response to Delay Is Not Working. “You have joined a few million other Americans in signing up for more extensive medical insurance than you had before and you did it through Healthcare.gov!”

Our liberal friends obviously take only what confirms their prejudices out of any report.

Delay Is Not Working as well as the bulk of data-driven reports (including mine) about health care reform show that it is neither reformed nor viable. It does pointedly mention that I was never able to make Healthcare.gov work and that I “signed up” via three long phone calls.

Here’s the bulletin: A few million Americans have indeed signed up for new policies under the mandate of Obamacare. Most are the people like me whose policies the ACA forced insurers to cancel. And it appears that fewer Americans will be insured as of January 1 than are insured today. Still, millions of true believers have blind faith in Obamacare.

The liberal argument for Anthropogenic Global Warming goes something like this: “Man causes it so we have to uncause it. I know this because noted scientists like Al Gore told me so.”

That same liberal argument trots out a bunch of data that shows global temps have risen and some computer predictions say that our continued existence will drive its continued rise. “The science is fixed,” they say in contradiction to the actual scientific method. In fact, when other scientists offer data like solar activity that disputes their flat-earth belief, our liberal friends put their thumbs in their ears.

Here’s the bulletin: the Earth heats and the Earth cools. Since we have both limited resources and limited political will, it would be a whole lot smarter to devote those scarce resources to adapting to the changes than to marketing a costly political measure built on junk science. Still, millions of true believers have blind faith in Global Warming and the idea that we can fix it just by eliminating man’s influence.

The liberal argument for research funding goes something like this: “If the government says so, it must be impartial.” Interestingly, many of the scientists studying or performing phrenology, eugenics, lobotomies, and tobacco did so with government funding.

Here’s the bulletin (this is an analogy): Bernie Sanders likes us to believe the PAC campaign funds he raises from unions and American Crystal Sugar are somehow less corrupting than PAC campaign funds his opponents get from ExxonMobil. Still, millions of true believers have blind faith in scientists on the government payroll. As long as those moneys are for a “good” cause.

The radioactive liberal argument starts from a report that “every bluefin tuna tested in the waters off California has shown to be contaminated with radiation that originated in Fukushima. Every single one.”

Never mind that most reports show the Fukushima radiation in Pacific tuna is equal to about one twentieth of a banana (the Forbes article is most readable). Doesn’t matter. Millions of true believers have blind faith that “We screwed up the OCEAN.”

Here’s the bulletin: OMG! WE SCREWED UP BANANAs people! We screwed up BANANAS. I’ll never eat fruit again!


One last try.

The scientific method is the technique true scientists use to investigate phenomena, acquire new knowledge, and (this is key) correct previous theories. Scientists systematically observe, measure, experiment, and test, their hypotheses. Most importantly, scientists support a theory as long as they can confirm its predictions but they challenge a theory when even one experiment or bit of data proves its predictions false.

The political scientists of the liberal left have shown that they find a theory like radioactive tuna, find some data like periodically rising temperatures that supports the theory, and declare the theory fact as they do with the “success” of the ACA in reducing the cost of health care. Then they drink the Kool-Aid.

I’ll never eat fruit again!

Happy New Year.

 

Guest Post: Global Cooling on My Mind

[Special to the Perspective] — The difference between weather and climate has been explained this way (which seems fairly good to me):

“Weather” is your mood and “Climate” is your personality.
Climate is a more permanent, underlying factor that causes the Weather.

There is also an old Jewish proverb that is one of my favorites: “For example is not proof.” The science of “anthropogenic global warming” is based around a lot of anecdotal evidence, some good data, and government funded computer programs. We have to be equally careful with anecdotal evidence such as the ones in items 1-9 going around lately, but consider the following:

1. The U.S. and Europe have had record, early cold/snow in 2013.
2. Australia has had very late (nearly summertime) snow and cold.
3. Cairo (Egypt, not Illinois) had snow for the 1st time in 100 years. Storm Alexa, the worst storm to hit Jerusalem for 60 years, left snow up to 19 inches deep in some areas.
4. The ice coverage area in the arctic ocean is higher than it has been in the last 7 years and that in the Anctartic has been trending higher for the last 30 years and more.
5. Solar activity is low now and projected to enter a period of 30 years of low activity.
6. Every data collection shows there has not been any global warming since 1998 — ironically the year after the Kyoto Protocol was signed.
7. The models developed by multiple agencies have been wrong in predicting the slight cooling over that period.
8. There are many cases of warmer temperatures than what we have now — such as in the medieval ages.
9. There is increasing consensus within the scientific community that the models have overstated the importance of greenhouse gases and understated the importance of solar radiation.

Add to the anecdotal evidence above a few other factoids:

A. The sun is overwhelmingly the source of heat on the Earth.
B. Carbon dioxide solubility in water drops with increasing temperatures.
C. Heat loss at night (the mechanism presumably responsible for global warming) is strictly based on radiation from Earth’s surface and atmosphere to the sub-zero cold of outer space. This transfer mechanism is not subject to sharp changes (ie a discontinuity), because neither the Earth’s surface temperature nor the blanket of greenhouse gases, nor the temperature of space can change suddenly. Indeed the temperature of space does not change at all and the greenhouse gas concentration has been increasing steadily. So basically nothing can explain reduced radiation at night – the supposed mechanism of globval warming conventional thought.
D. As opposed to the heat losses at night not changing quickly, we do know that solar activity does have ‘rapid’ changes.
E. The rapid changes in warming or cooling, therefore, must be due to higher/lower solar activity and incident radiation coming to Earth.

Combining A and B and E, a reasonable scientist would investigate that it is more likely that atmospheric CO2 lags heating rather than the other (more conventional) opinion that has dominated the public discourse for the last 20 years.

For more information:

o The CDIAC offers a lot of data and facts on concentration and sources of atmospheric CO2. CDIAC is a unit of the U.S. Department of Energy Climate and Environmental Sciences Division of the Office of Biological and Environmental Research.
o The sea ice extent in both hemispheres is available from The University of Illinois (where Dangerous Bill taught for many, many years) Polar Research Group is part of UIUC Department of Atmospheric Sciences.
o A study by Swedish scientist Leif Kullman and others analyzed fossils in the Scandes mountains. They found that tree lines for different species of trees were higher during the Roman and Medieval times than they are today. The temperatures were higher as well.

–Felipe Yanes


Editor’s Note: The literature is full of data, much of which contradicts the official “climate change” arguments. Mr. Yanes has pointed out some of the flaws.

Solar heating deniers (many of whom ask for government credits to add solar devices to private homes) lost the “anthropogenic global warming” argument so they now are trying to change it to the “man-made climate change” argument. Over the millennia, the climate has and does change as solar activity varies, the magnetic poles shift, the moon wobbles, and Earth’s axis tilts a few degrees one way or the other.

Science isn’t “fixed,” permanent, in stasis. Mr. Yanes’ reasonable scientist would discover that narcissistic comic book illustrators and fiction writers who defend AGW know little about actual science and have adopted the now conventional opinion that they have more control over their environment than even Jack Williamson believed.

They have to. Otherwise, they lose control of the rest of us.

 

Democrats to Amend Obamacare

WASHINGTON (United Press Association, Monday, Sept. 16, 2013)–Congressman Hank Johnson (D-GA) introduced six amendments to the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act today.

“I don’t believe the President needs Congressional approval to add these improvements to what we all call ‘ObamaCare’,” Rep. Johnson said. “I respect his decision to seek authorization through these amendments. At this time, I am deeply concerned that the current law harms seniors and that these amendments are in our national interest.

“The legacy of aging has left a severe economic and physical gap between seniors and non-seniors but the PPACA’s push for equality which has already spread to Hispanics, gays, immigrants and many others, can now hold its head high as it treats seniors with compassion and respect. The arc of justice seems to get a little better with each passing generation, as we all stand on the shoulders of the great leaders and visionaries who lead the march to pass universal health care four years ago.”

  • Amendment 1 bans lipofuscin deposits in muscle tissue.
  • Amendment 2 bans reduction of the hepatic blood supply as well as cellular multinucleararity and mandates phagocytosis.
  • Amendment 3 bans senescent changes of the cornea including a reduction in epithelial luster.
  • Amendment 4 bans the production of apolipoprotein, APOE4.
  • Amendment 5 bans magic dust.
  • Amendment 6 bans osteopenia.

Co-sponsors included Rep. Xavier Becerra (D-CA), Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus, Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee (D-TX), and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-CA).

“Building on House Democrats 2012 success, these outstanding leaders of our party are committed to standing up for the elderly and improving their quality of life!” said DCCC Chairman Steve Israel. “These exceptional Members will lead the charge to pick up seats in 2014 and continue reversing the Tea Party wave that would condemn our elderly to shortened lives of pain and deterioration.

“Rep. Johnson has determined that the United States Congress, through its ability to amend the laws of nature, can virtually eliminate these canons put into effect by another party.”

Click the banner below to tell Congressional Republicans to stop blocking this important Democratic effort to improve the “golden years” for our poor and elderly!

Stop Congress Button
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