We’re Number One!

“I’ve been trying to figure out why businesses aren’t insisting on single payer healthcare,” my old friend Enola “Fanny” Guay said, “and I realized it’s because we’re all in this great shift into being corporate serfs.”

Although I’’ve known Ms. Guay for nearly 50 years and know how proud she is of her experiential learning, I also know she can be a bit blinded by her ideology. She’s a second generation member of Helen and Scott Nearing’s back-to-the-land movement in Vermont. The Nearings bought an old farm house and built a simple, self-sufficient lifestyle here, far from big government and rampant consumerism. Their descendants are now the power brokers and consumers of Montpeculiar.

Fanny Guay really really really believes in single payer. “All Americans have a constitutional if not a moral right to health care,” she says, “and a single payer plan would cover everyone by default for doctors, hospital, preventive and long-term care, mental health, reproductive, dental, vision, prescription drug and medical supply costs.”

Be nice if we knew how to pay for that.

“We won’t need as much money under single payer,” Ms. Guay said. “With all the patients under the single system, the payer has clout. The VA, for instance, gets a 40% discount on drugs because of its buying power. This monopsony explains why drug prices in other countries are lower than here. That’s how Medicare forces hospital and doctor costs down as well.”

Be nice if we knew how to pay for that.

“See, there is already plenty of money in the system now to pay for it because we already pay for health care.”

Erm, no. Rutland City Treasurer Wendy Wilton’s analysis shows that there is no pot of gold in taxpayer pockets.

She looked at all current state revenues. The property tax, already earmarked for education, is maxed out. Vermont is number four in the nation in property taxes, and just .05% behind number three Connecticut. (The property tax raises 42% of the state revenues.) General sales taxes plus the tariff on gas and booze runs a close second, raising 30% of revenues. State income tax, no longer coupled to federal, is likewise maxed out.

Vermont may grow rocks but there’s no more blood in the stones.

In fact, CNN ranked Vermont number one, numero uno, primo supremo, in the tax wars with a total state and local tax burden of 14.1% of per capita income. That’s far more than New York (13.8%), New Jersey (11.6), or California (11.5) or even Florida (10%).

“That does seem high, but we are a small state and we have a great quality of life.”

Can’t hide from the facts. Vermont will need another payroll tax.

“But we don’t need new taxes!” Ms. Guay said. “We just need to tap the insurance premiums we’re already paying.”

Ms. Wilton found that the state will need a new 14.5% payroll tax but is still going to run $300 million yearly budget deficits even with that new tax. She believes the Shumlin Administration is over-estimating the cost savings a single-payer system can deliver.

She also believe the Shumlin Administration is playing hide the walnut with how much they will have to raise taxes this year, next year, and the year after that, and so on ad infinitum.

The new Vermont legislative session begins Thursday. Guess what’s first on the agenda.

Ms. Guay wondered “why businesses aren’t insisting on single payer healthcare.” Pretty simple, really.

  • Gov. Shumlin’s plan will drive the couple of remaining insurance companies out of business here.
  • Gov. Shumlin’s plan will make it illegal not to provide health insurance to all employees.
  • Gov. Shumlin’s plan will double the size of government (which doubles the size of taxes) overnight.
  • Gov. Shumlin’s plan will drive the couple of remaining Vermont employers out of business here because a business can’t do business if they can’t predict how much their taxes will go up every year.

And no business wants to be legislated into being sort of a serf to the state.

Be nice if we knew how to pay for all that.

 

Lie to Me

Choosy mothers may not choose Jif any more 1 .

The price Jif is going up by more than FORTY percent today, according to published reports.

Social Security checks are going up by less than FOUR percent, according to published reports.

Decades before she collected Social Security, my (very choosy) mom branded us a Skippy Peanut Butter household. After all Jif is just creamed peanuts in a jar but Skippy is peanutbutter.com.

Monthly Social Security for more than 60 million Americans will increase by 3.6 percent starting with checks issued January 1, 2012 (the Supplemental Security Income increase starts with checks issued December 31 of this year).

The San Antonio Express News reported that “the Cost of Living Adjustment ensures that the purchasing power of Social Security and SSI benefits is not eroded by inflation. It is based on the percentage increase in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) from the third quarter of the last year a COLA was determined to the third quarter of the current year. If there is no increase, there can be no COLA. There was no COLA in 2010 and 2011 because the CPI-W, as determined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Department of Labor, for those years did not increase above the level of the third quarter of 2008, the last year a COLA was determined.”

Some recipients, may see their Social Security partially or completely eaten by the rising Medicare premiums.

Is Lie to Me Real?

Lie to Me was a Fox television series that spanned three seasons from 2009 into 2011. The show centered on human lie detection based on applied psychology including interpreting microexpressions, a Facial Action Coding System, and body language. Lie to Me was cancelled by Fox in May but probably not because people can’t detect liars.

Nearly 80% of Americans said they do not trust the government to do what is right, according to a Pew Research Center public opinion survey released in 2010. It was the highest level of distrust of Washington in half a century.

That was 2010.

A New York Times and CBS poll released last week shows now, just 18 months later, 89% of Americans do not trust government to do the right thing and 74% of us say that we believe the nation is on the wrong track. That’s higher than the highest level of distrust of Washington in more than 60 years.

There are plenty of partisan political reasons for discontent but I figure it is simpler than ideology.

Uncle Sam lies.

From Vietnam body counts to “I am not a crook” to “I did not have sex with that woman,” we have become lost in a misery of misstatements, mistruths, misdirections. Lies.

I don’t believe the statistics that show my cost of living has risen only 3.6% since 2008. Somebody monkeyed with the numbers. Somebody lied.

I don’t believe Harry Reid who said “It’s very clear that private-sector jobs have been doing just fine. It’s the public-sector jobs where we’ve lost huge numbers,” last week while pimping a $35 billion bailout for public employee unions. Somebody monkeyed with the numbers poorly. Somebody lied.

I don’t believe in Anthropogenic Global Warming. Lots of somebodies monkeyed with the numbers to make that case. Somebody lied.

Of course it may be entirely because that well-known inventor of the Internet, Al Gore, lied to us in order to feather his own very noble but lightbulb-intense mansion.


Unfortunately, the result of the lies is that choosy mothers can’t afford Jif and really really choosy mothers will have to give up on Skippy for the peanut butter cookies in my Halloween basket.

Winter Wonderland

The squirrels think it may be a mild winter this year. The geese have been flying north this week. The National Weather Service says it may be a mild winter this year.

That must be why the National Weather Service announced yesterday that Winter Weather Awareness Week begins today in North Puffin.

Believe me. No one in North Puffin needs a reminder of winter weather.

Except research shows that about 70 percent of the ice and snow related fatalities occur in automobiles, and about 25 percent of all winter related fatalities are people caught off guard, out in the storm.

The best awareness plan, then, is not to drive; stay inside with your feet next to the wood stove.

Today, the National Weather Service will offer tips on ways to prepare for winter hazards.
I have a winter car kit in each vehicle, the wood stoves and generators have all passed their test run, and I obsess over the weather forecasts.

The harder part of living in the frozen north is the lack of a single planning checklist. That surprised me. In South Puffin, every television station, every radio station, every newspaper inundates us with Hurricane Preparedness guides.

Not here. I found the public information statement from the National Weather Service-Burlington at the Victoria Advocate. (At 165 years old, the Victoria Advocate, is Texas‘ second oldest newspaper. The Advocate can be found exactly where it has been for 62 of those years, on East Constitution Street in downtown Victoria, exactly 1,998 miles from North Puffin.)

A family emergency plan and an accompanying emergency kit is a good thing. This season is a good time to over warn and over-react: “Prepare for the worst. Pray for the best.” I distilled the best advices I could find into a Winter Preparedness Guide on my business site, harperco.net.

On Tuesday: What to do if stranded on the road during a storm.
Reality check. We are all far more likely to be stuck in a parking space than stuck in a snow drift off the Mountain Road. 90% of what you’ll find on the Winter Preparedness Guide will help even if you are in your own driveway. And the other 10%? Why not finish the test so the real test doesn’t finish you?

On Wednesday: Protect yourself from the wind and cold.
Take a look at how skiers, ski patrollers, and your highway guys dress. Take a lesson.

On Thursday: Winter flooding and ice jams across the North Country.
Almost freezing water on your floor? Flooding can come from broken pipes or a broken roof just as easily as it does from the lake or river near your house.

On Friday: Winter weather terminology. What exactly does “A winter storm warning is in effect” mean?
See my better plan below.

On Saturday: Review preparedness activities for winter.

Americans live in the most severe-weather prone country on Earth, so I have a better plan.



Random Scribbles


Over the weekend I happened to see a commercial for Audi’s new handwriting recognition pad in the center console.

Handwriting recognition pad?

In a car???

It’s no longer breaking news that texting while driving is a bad idea. A 2009 Virginia Tech Transportation Institute study reveals just how dangerous it can be. The VTTI examined the behavior of truck drivers over more than 6 million miles and found that people who send text messages while driving are 23 times more likely to be in a crash (or what they call a “near-crash event”) than undistracted drivers.

The study used in truck cameras to capture where the drivers’ eyes were looking as they drove, dialed cell phones, talked on the cell phones, reached for objects around the cab, and texted. Not surprisingly, the tasks that took a driver’s eyes off the road caused ramped up the risk.

In crashes or near-crashes, texting took a driver’s focus away from the road for an average of 4.6 seconds. That’s more than three times the average reaction time to jam on the brakes when a tree — or a kid — jumps out in front of you. It’s enough time to travel the length of a football field at highway speeds.

I crashed my mom’s Comet convertible when I was a teenager. I didn’t have a cellphone. I couldn’t text. But I did have a car radio. I took my eyes off the road just for an instant and a culvert jumped right out in front of me.

Mom was not pleased.

The VTTI agrees. Avoiding any task that takes your eyes off the road avoids taking your car off the road.

Last month, Audi announced a national initiative to have drivers across America take the Audi “Driver’s Pledge” to make the road a more intelligent and presumably safer place. They encourage all drivers to take a stand exemplifying responsible driving:


pledge
I added the final promise, the one in italics, to the list. Audi apparently forgot that one.

Persembe Peeves

Oh, swell.

The cost of health insurance this year rose more steeply than in previous years, outstripping wages and adding uncertainty about the pace of growing costs.

Early estimates of the COLA are around 1.2% for next year which obviously takes in the 30% increase in food costs this year on top of 110% increases from the prior two years when there was no COLA at all.