Category Archives: Newspaper “Science”

If it’s in the MSM, it may be _political_ science

Ah Choo

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Some people say all men are pigs but I disavow all knowledge of swine flu.

My friend Towse wrote about the hype hype HYPE surrounding the swine flu.

“There is always some flu around and flu is always killing some people,” Towse wrote. “Even when a raw mutant flu manages to kill off more people than a shooting-war, flu has never ravaged whole cities as cholera or the Black Death can do. As awful pandemics go, flu is like the snotty-nosed little sister of awful pandemics.”

As of April 26, there were just 20 confirmed cases of Swine flu in the United States.
California, 7 cases. Kansas, 2 cases. New York City, 8 cases. Ohio, 1 case. Texas, 2 cases.

That said, the swine flu hype is probably justified.

Everyone in the medical community fears a rerun of the 1918-19 influenza pandemic. To put it in the computer terms we all understand, “It’s not a question of whether your hard drive crashes but when.”

I came to know more about the 1918-19 pandemic through Vermont Poet Laureate Ellen Bryant Voigt’s narrative poem, Kyrie, This sequence of persona poems connects different speakers by their location in the pandemic. That epidemic killed more than 30 million people worldwide. Some of Ms. Voigt’s narrators “seem related to one another and form a kind of community. It was an amazing devastation,” she said, “encouraged by World War I. The movement of troops made it easy for the virus to spread.” The name Kyrie (pronounced KEER-ee-aa) is from the Greek meaning “Lord.”

The 1918 pandemic was better known as the Spanish flu. That bug killed more than twice the number killed in World War I.

CDC reports that the current “viruses contain a unique combination of gene segments that have not been reported previously among swine or human influenza viruses in the U.S. or elsewhere… It is not anticipated that the seasonal influenza vaccine will provide protection against the swine flu H1N1 viruses.”

The H1N1 viruses are also unique in that, having jumped from swine and birds to humans, they now make the jump from human to human. Modern air travel means they can travel to all corners of the world in days.

Today, the World Bank announced that there is not enough money on hand to underwrite treating a “simple” flu pandemic across the third world.

I had not planned to address the swine flu. After all, it’s not as if there isn’t already enough coverage. This is not a “little boy who cried wolf” issue. It is really a newspaper science versus real science issue. Even if this particular influenza outbreak peters out instead of pigging out on all our peeps, it’s not a question of whether there will be a pandemic but when.

Men cope better with emergencies if they practice practice practice their response. I hope they practice well on this one.

CDC reminded us of the everyday actions people can take to stay healthy:

  • Cover your nose and mouth with a tissue when you cough or sneeze. Throw the tissue in the trash after you use it.
  • Wash your hands often with soap and water, especially after you cough or sneeze. Alcohol-based hands cleaners are also effective.
  • Avoid touching your eyes, nose or mouth. Germs spread that way.

And, perhaps most important, avoid close contact with sick people.

“Nothing Is Free”

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I never thought I would say this: Cubans understand economics better than Americans.

In 1932 Lionel Robbins defined Economics as “the science which studies human behavior as a relationship between ends and scarce means which have alternative uses.”

I think that is not true any more. At least, not here.

Economists should study and report on who produces, distributes, and consumes goods and services, how they do it, and where it happens. The “soft science” of economics allegedly uses empirical data but in reality is now a political exercise. In today’s scientific environment, we know more about Global Warming than we know about the economy and there is certainly more politics than science in the climatology data.

In Cuba, nothing is free, reports the Miami Herald. The Cuban people pay for it [all] with their work.

“A Cuban gets a salary of 500 pesos a month (about $20) and is told that education and healthcare are free,” Uva de Aragon of FIU Research Institute told the Herald last week. “Nothing is free. The Cuban people pay for it with their work.”

What a concept. Health care. Food. Housing. Consumer goods. All related to the sweat of one’s brow.

Despite the media furor, have you noticed that you don’t directly pay for your health care? Most of us don’t. Most of us have “insurance” (or Medicare or Medicaid). When was the last time anyone reading this brought a home-grown chicken to the doc’s office to pay for the visit? Or traded an hour of computer service for it? Since there is a disconnect between the delivery of the service and the payment for same, we don’t care that the cost has spiraled out of sight. The incoming Administration and the Congress want to take over Health Care to save you money. Right.

The Cuban earns 500 pesos a month from the state. The rest of his or her production stays in the hands of the state to pay for that “free” care.

Education has long been publicly funded by land taxes. Since states like Vermont and Florida take those real estate taxes straight to the Capitol and dole out payments to the local schools, there is a disconnect between the delivery of the service and the payment for same; the cost has spiraled out of sight. Now that real estate values (and the taxes collected) have dropped, the Miami-Dade schools will sue the State of Florida for the “lost” revenue. Right.

The Cuban earns 500 pesos a month from the state. The rest of his or her production stays in the hands of the state to pay for their “free” schooling.

Food (so far) hits most Americans in the pocketbook. OK, except for those on Food Stamps. Oh, yeah, and except for the taxpayer-funded farm subsidies that keep prices artificially low. Still, most of us spend part of our paychecks at the supermarket every week.

The Cuban earns 500 pesos a month from the state. No free lunch there, either, since he has to pay for his meals out of the 500 pesos (about $20). It costs most American families more than twenty bucks to hit the Mickey D Supper Club once.

Congress and the Fed believe we can spend our way out of any problem–health care, food, housing, bad loans. That’s probably true if there is enough earned income to tax to do so.

Uh oh.

Congress and the Fed (and apparently the Miami-Dade school superintendent) believe we can spend our way out of any problem by printing more money.

And nobody in Congress has broken an honest sweat in years.

Here’s the reality check. If I take a fine art photograph, print and frame that photograph, and sell that photograph to Joe next door, I will receive cash money which I can then spend in the grocery store or at the gas pump. If I don’t take that fine art photograph, or print and frame that photograph, or eventually sell that photograph to Joe, I will have no money for food or gas or my tax bill.

Any Congress Critter who doesn’t understand that dooms you and you and you and me.

Hoofbeats

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The End is nigh. The hoofbeats of the Four Horsemen have sounded. I am about to agree with Gary Trudeau. A couple-three years ago, his Doonesbury™ strip introduced Dr. Nathan Null, the Situational Science Adviser™. Here’s an excerpt from that strip:

Young Republican College Kid: “Drat! These pesky scientific facts won’t line up behind my beliefs!”
Situational Science Adviser: “Then Challenge them, Stewie!”
—–
SSA: “Situational Science is about respecting both sides of a scientific argument, not just the one supported by the facts!”
—–
SSA: “That’s why I always teach the controversy like the Evolution Controversy or the Global Warming controversy …
—–
YRCC: “You’re right, Situational Scienceman–I’ll never trust science again! “It’s just too controversial!”
SSA: “Stewie gets it now, folks! Do you?”

Trudeau likes to pound the Bush administration (ya think) but there is a similar effort going on the Far Green camps to use science to forestall and obfuscate rather than simply to report.

Once upon a time I thought this wasn’t a wholesale attempt to discredit science, merely a concerted effort to ramp up tiny observations into generalized Truths to serve their agenda. After all, we are told the Far Right agenda tries to use common folk as cannon or environmental fodder so, situationally, the Far Green agenda must try to shut down one business segment after another.

That worries me, but not as much as what I now see as the wholesale drive to gain power over every facet of your life and mine. How? By discrediting science whenever it appears in public. It has been going on for years.

Big Tobacco tried mightily to discredit Dr. Koop as a poopyhead.

Natural Life Magazine tried mightily to discredit childhood vaccinations.

The Far Right tried mightily to discredit Evolution for 80 years.

Trudeau’s Situational Science Adviser pushed the pesticides controversy, the coal slurry controversy, the Everglades controversy, the acid rain controversy, the mercury controversy, and more.

I know very little about mercury other than its toxicity and ubiquity. And its distance from the Sun. I did read that if you lose a single mercury filling in a ten-acre pond, the EPA would have to ban all fishing, swimming, bathing, and boating in that pond. Makes you wonder why we still have “silver” fillings–or why Al Gore pushes mercury-laden fluorescent light bulbs–innt.

Now, of course, everything from the unnaturally high snowfall in the winter of 2007-08 to the unnatural temperature rise of the Atlantic Ocean is caused by Global Warming, and all a result of Carbon Dioxide.

Heh.

Anybody want to guess the agenda here?

It’s almost the same as mine.

I want you to read this, decide I am brilliant, and do what I tell you is right.

The Far Green wants you decide they are brilliant and do what they tell you is right. But they want more. The Far Green wants to force you and you and you to do what they tell you is right And they are developing the tools to enforce their whims.

One of my correspondents related a story from the historical times after the Tet Offensive when gasoline cost 40 cents per gallon. His friend, a Quaker, had received Conscientious Objector status and was assigned to a group called “Environment!” After working there several months, he said “These guys don’t care a bit about the environment. This is all about power… We, the great and stupid unwashed, needed to be doing what the folks at “Environment!” said we should be doing.”

That was more than 35 years ago.

I think the group Environment! has joined the Extinct Species list but other Far Green groups are growing stronger.

Today their tools include taxes, criminal penalties, and news attacks on science.

Our Quaker friend said then that “if the environmental movement could define Carbon Dioxide as a pollutant, they would have total control.”

OK, everybody inhale … and hold.

Next up will be the ban on that other dangerous chemical, Dihydrogen Monoxide.

Your Carbon Footprint
NASA and the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that the earth has entered a natural cooling phase that will last decades.
OTOH, Al and Tipper Gore’s Tennessee home uses about the same amount of electricity as a dozen or more average American homes or at least 156 Swahili villages. The Gore’s Nashville residence is just four times the size of those average American homes and the Gore’s consumption has jumped yet another 10% since their “energy-efficient” home renovations. Do as I say, not as I do, eh Al?

Solar Energy a Tough Sell

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The Miami Herald thinks solar power is a white elephant.

The old saying is, “If it bleeds, it leads.” I guess there wasn’t enough blood in South Florida yesterday.

Florida Power and Light, the principle utility here, has “scaled back grand plans for solar energy in Florida. Sunshine may be free, but generating energy from it is still a costly proposition,” according to a report by John Dorschner in the Miami Herald.

It surprised me to discover that “Florida gets much less direct sunlight than some other places.” The Herald continued that “What’s more, solar can be considerably more expensive than other forms of energy, experts say.”

For the record, FPL Group has desert solar plants and wind facilities throughout the western states. It is the largest U.S. producer of wind and solar power. FPL serves more than 4.4 million customer accounts across Florida.

“I haven’t seen anything yet that shows solar is right for Florida,” Jay Apt, executive director of the Carnegie Mellon Electricity Industry Center, concluded in the Herald.

Now for the real story.

“Backers of solar power insist that costs would drop quickly over time if solar gets support from utilities and politicians. But those who study energy economics are skeptical.”

I want to know where they found these experts. Consider this:

1959: “Only Jules Verne can get a man to the Moon”
1969: “That’s one small step for man …”

1975: “The American automobile industry can’t possibly double the gas mileage on cars. Double? Are you crazy?”
1985: The Corporate Average Fuel Economy for cars reached 27.5 mpg.

1992: “The sweet spot for desktop computers is $3,000” (I paid $3,085 1992 dollars for an 80486-based Gateway 2000 in May of that year).
2002: Gateway sold Pentium 4-based desktops with Windows XP for under a grand (and some for half of that now).

2006: Google founder Larry Page and Silicon Valley venture capitalists John Doerr and Vinod Khosla lit a public fire under solar power with a California ballot issue.

Computer chips and solar cells are, at the engineering level, pretty much the same thing.

“A solar cell is just a big specialized chip, so everything we’ve learned about making chips applies,” Paul Saffo, an associate engineering professor at Stanford University and a longtime observer of Silicon Valley said in the International Herald Trib earlier this year.

That tells us we can link Moore’s Law and solar technology. Moore’s law states that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit doubles every two years or so; its corollary is that prices plummet at around the same rate.

In 2006, Solaicx was one of dozens of Silicon Valley firms driving the then-$11 billion worldwide solar energy market. Applied Materials, the world’s largest manufacturer of chip-making equipment, began selling machinery that manufactures solar wafers that same year.

In 2006, SunPower founder Richard Swanson told CNN the solar industry was like the chip industry 30 years before. “It was an extremely fun and dynamic industry,” he said. “But unless you were in it, it was practically invisible until the IBM PC came out in 1981.”

That was a couple of years ago, long enough for the news to reach Florida by now.

So. Mr. Dorschner thinks solar power is a white elephant. I think the Herald and Mr. Dorschner should maybe do a little more research. And maybe, just maybe, they should report what the solar industry is doing that will change the numbers instead of looking to spill enough blood to kill it.

Filed under Bad Journalism and Far Green Angst.Sources:
http://www.miamiherald.com/457/story/561858.html
http://www.iht.com/articles/2008/02/17/technology/PING.php
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/26/magazines/business2/solar_siliconvalley.biz2/index.htm
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore’s_law