Predilection for Prediction

It is indeed the official day for prognostication.

I predict it will not snow in the Keys again this year. It pretty much never snows here but we had the first ever sighting of razorbills in December, so you never know. They’re strange little North Atlantic seabirds that look like flying footballs. The global climate change-driven colder water up north could be the reason a few decided to be snowbirds here.

We will not see 99.9 cent gasoline again until TSHTF. I remember 29.9 cent gas but I was earning about a buck an hour at that time. On the other hand gasoline stayed under a buck from the 1920s until 1980 and had about a 26-year run below $2 that ended in about 2006.

!@#$%^ Comcast’s CEO Brian L Roberts says he has learned from Apple how to “make things fun.” The very fact that the head of the second most reviled company in America is even talking to Apple sent shivers through the tech world. (Mr. Roberts told Forbes that his company has lost subscribers throughout his tenure due to increased competition and the fact the company didn’t offer the “best suite of products.” It had nothing to do with the fact that they raise prices $1 each and every time a customer finds a better choice.)

I don’t think Apple will use Bombast to roll out AppleTV. Apple’s cash pile could hit $200 billion next year. Comcast’s market cap is about $97 billion. I predict Apple will BUY !@#$%^Comcast and make it AppleTV.

According to a new Pew Research study, 85% percent of U.S. adults own a mobile phone but only 56% have a smartphone. Worldwide, the total number of smartphones passed 1 billion last year. There are 6 billion cell phone subscribers on Earth. Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer declined to comment on whether Microsoft would make its own smartphone but Microsoft is working with component suppliers in Asia to test its own smartphone designs. Since there are an astonishing 85 million adult cellphone users in the U.S. without a smartphone (and a corresponding 5 billion worldwide), Microsoft doesn’t need to think about early adopters. Microsoft doesn’t need to think about iSheep. Microsoft doesn’t need to think about Droids. I predict Microsoft can win the smartphone race if it simply gets most of the newbies.

gadgetsI further predict I will not get a smartphone in 2013.

I believe there will be a 2013 NHL season. I predict no one will notice.

I further predict that police will disarm samarai  sword-wielding naked men. But probably not in the District of Columbia.

The Belgian monks at St. Sixtus Abbey will give up the title of priciest beer when BJ’s discovers New Amsterdam Amber and prices it at $99.99 for six bottles.

Last year, the cash-strapped Ukraine charged Did Moroz (the local version of Father Christmas) impersonators an income tax. Florida will see that as a revenue stream and impose a tax on Santas.

The FBI will continue searching for Kenneth “D.B. Cooper” Conley, one of the convicted bank robbers who escaped from a Chicago high-rise jail and hailed a cab to make his getaway.

A new diet will sweep the cognoscenti with Twinkies and sugar free tonic water. I predict that I will not eat any of that.

Yesterday, I wrote, “Over the last couple of years, I’ve replaced or repaired most of the little things that plagued me and stole the time I needed to do all the fun stuff I wanted to do.” I predict I will sell the Honda and buy a pellet stove. I may buy an iPod dock but that’s iffy.

Stocks will rise. Bonds will fall. Investors will be late to the game.

Word enthusiasts will ban “fiscal cliff.”

Finally, (and this is the hardest crystal gazing I’ve done) America’s national politicians-for-life, will add more than another trillion dollars to our debt and “kick the can down” the road for another year. I predict that (a) the U.S. Congress approval rating will sink below 20%, (b) the U.S. Congress will form three committees to investigate the bankruptcy sale of Hostess Twinkies to Miguel Angel Treviño Morales, and (c) the U.S. Congress will declare a War on Guns.



Those were freebies, aren’t they?

OK, I foresee that the world did not end on December 21.

6 thoughts on “Predilection for Prediction

  1. Herr Blogmeister eloquently averred: “Stocks will rise. Bonds will fall. Investors will be late to the game.”

    There are very few actual *investors* when compared to the enormous dollar-movement on Wall Street. By that I mean that most *investors* are direly passive in that arena. They are mostly employees of US corporations whose bi-monthly stock purchases — which are matched by equal contributions into said 401-k accounts by the corporations themselves. The corporations are taking money out of Peter’s portside pocket and putting into the one on starboard. It’s a scam.

    So, the combined bi-monthly contributions into 401-ks make up a substantial part of Wall Street volume that gets hyped from the willing media accomplices.

    BTW, these employee/investors are held hostage — in a sense — and have scant choice but to contribute to the company’s stock because in many cases it represents their entire retirement plans. –especially since they are told with a straight face that the corporation is doing well in spite of hiring freezes, lay-offs and falling stock prices.

    I mean, it looks like such a great deal: A man contributes $250 twice a month into the 401-k, and the company matches it. Wow! Wot a deal! (refer to the Peter’s pant pocket analogy in a preivious paragraph)

    Then let’s add Ben Bernanke to the mix. He creates money out of thin air and calls it QEwotever and “gives” it to Wall Street investment bankers and sends the tab to the US Taxpayers disguised as debt that Congress and the President have no problem borrowing to cover (long sentence).

    I’ve said enough.

    — George

  2. Hey, don’t be so tough on yourself, Don. Lots of people draw a short straw in life, and they get through it.

    — George

  3. I’m not altogether sure Microsoft is smart™ enough to recognize that market but it surely is significant. They’ll probably succeed by accident, despite their advertising.

  4. Ah. Don’s comment was to Herr Blogmeister and not to Herr Poleczech. My apologies because I don’t have a smart phone either.

    — George

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